Improving evacuation modelling

EVAQ is a new traffic model for analyzing evacuation plans and evacuations of entire regions. For evacuations an accurate representation of reality is needed in terms of travel time and vehicle location. For this a Dynamic Network Loading (DNL) model is used. Many of these models use link travel time functions that base link travel time only on current conditions and not on experienced conditions along the way. In EVAQ a DNL model is used that explicitly keeps track of free flow and queue parts. This type of DNL is relatively new and it was indicated (not proven) that network performance degeneration might be misrepresented. Network performance degeneration is the worsening of traffic conditions in busy circumstances. In case of evacuations one might for instance expect gridlock on urban networks.
This study will exist of two main parts. The first part is an analysis of EVAQ and how network performance degeneration is represented. Focus will be on the DNL model as this, given certain input, will or will not create realistic network conditions. For the purpose of EVAQ, also other parts play an important role, but these are not a direct influence on network performance. The second part of this study will try to deal with any problems found. The DNL model will probably be changed and/or extended.


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